The Storm Report Blog For February 25-26, 2013
Left Map Analysis: The latest satellite image shows the sub-tropical jetstream flowing over Mexico into the western Gulf of Mexico and on towards the Gulf Coast. This jet is going to interact with a very powerful Polar front jet that is moving out of Colorado into Texas. This is going to set the stage for a significant winter storm and also a moderate outbreak of severe weather for the next 24-36hrs across a good portion of the country.
Right Map Analysis: The current position of the surface low pressure is over the four corners region, this will push out into the Texas Panhandle before taking a turn to the northeast. The yellow dash lined is our forecasted track for the next 24hrs of the low pressure center into the first part of the 26th. This storm is going to be very robust with a winter side and severe weather side to it. Looking at the green line is the outlined area for the moderate rain that will move just south of the low’s track. The pink line represents where the mix of rain and snow along with some freezing rain will occur over the next 24hrs. The yellow line represents where the thunderstorms will be in general along with heavy rains. This region could see upwards to two inches of rainfall for some localized places. The red line outlines our area of concern for severe weather to include the possibility of tornadoes, this region will also have the chance of seeing upwards to four inches of rainfall. Now looking at the light blue line, this outlines our projected region that will see some sort of snowfall from the storm, not as heavy though. The darker blue region will be the area that could see upwards to six inches of snowfall. The purple line in the center is the area that could very well see upwards to 12-18 inches of snowfall from this storm.
Looking at the potential impacts of this storm for certain cities and how they will be impacted. (These conditions are for February 25-26).
(Winter Weather Side)
Amarillo, TX: The snow will continue through the first part of Feb 25, for this region with total snowfall amounts ranging from around one inch upwards to four inches. The winds will be very strong with this storm as the potential exist to see northwest winds around 35-45mph with gust near 50mph. The temps for the duration of the event will be around 28-32F.
Oklahoma City, OK: The system will move into the region on the early part of the 25th with rainfall to start and then changing over to snow towards the end. Total rainfall amounts will be around a half an inch upwards to one inch of rain. While total snowfall amounts will be around one to two inches. The winds for the region will be around northeast 20-25mph with higher gust, shifting to the northwest 25-30mph by the evening of the 25th. Temps for this event will be around 30-34F.
Kansas City, MO: The clouds will be in place. However, the snowfall will not arrive until mid-day on the 25th; once it arrives expect it to be heavy at times and last until early on the 26th. Total snowfall accumulations may be around 8-12inches for the metro area and surrounding parts of the city. Winds will be from the northeast 15-20mph with higher gust early, then becoming northeast 20-35mph with gust near 40mph towards the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures for the event will be in the 30-34F range throughout the day on the 25th.
Chicago, IL: The majority of the 25th will be cloudy for the area; however, by the later evening and first part of the 26th look for the snow showers to begin moving in to the region. Right now total snowfall accumulations for the area will be around two to four inches. The winds will be moderately out of the northeast around 20-25mph with higher gust. The temperatures for the event will be in the 30-34F range for most of the time, slightly cooling down by the evening to the 28-32F range on the 26th.
Houston, TX: The rain and thunderstorms will be impacting the metro area for the majority of the day on the 25th clearing out by the evening. Total rainfall amounts for the region will be around a half an inch to one inch by the end of the 25th. Winds will be strong from the west around 20-25mph with higher gust possibly getting to around 35mph. The temperatures will start in the 66-70F range and then begin dropping towards the afternoon of the 25th to around 62-66F, further dropping overnight into the upper 50s.
Biloxi, MS: The rain and thunderstorms will impact all day on the 25th with some very heavy rainfall possible, along with that the severe weather threat will be moderate for the region with the chance of seeing large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes. The best time will be earlier in the day before the warm front pushes through the region. Total rainfall amounts will be around one to three inches possible, with some places even getting more. Winds will be moderate out of the southeast around 20mph shifting to the southwest 20-25mph by the evening of the 25th. Temperatures for the event will start out in the 68-72F range and then by later in the afternoon fall into the 64-68F range, and further fall overnight to the upper 50s.
Pensacola, FL: The rain and thunderstorms will be impacting the region all day on the 25th and into portions of the 26th with total rainfall amounts around three inches; along with that will be the chance to see some severe weather in the area. The temperatures will start in the 68-72F range and then by later in the afternoon fall to the 64-68F, further falling overnight into the lower 60s by daybreak on the 26th. Winds will be from the southeast around 20mph shifting to the southwest around 20mph later in the day.
Past 24hr Storm Summary: This storm system over the past 24hrs has been pushing out of the southwest and four corners region, bringing with it lots of snow to places like Colorado and also New Mexico; some of these places seen over one foot of snowfall. The rainfall has also been pushing through portions of southern Texas over the past 24hrs with some places getting some heavier rainfall.
24hr Storm Impacts: The next 24hrs this storm system is really going to become powerful as the center moves out into the panhandle of Texas. Once it arrives into the region, expect to see the severe weather start to increase in the warm sector, which will be lying right over the Gulf Coast region for most of the day on the 25th. The colder air on the back side which will stretch from northwest Texas into Oklahoma, and then eventually push into Kansas, will be the site for some places getting very heavy snowfall amounts. The heaviest snowfall band looks like it will setup over Kansas; here some places could see upwards to around one foot or more of snowfall before it’s all done. People along the Gulf Coast do need to be on the watch out for the severe weather as there is a pretty good chance we could be dealing with a few tornadoes and also wind damage and larger hail to hit the region. The end of this period will have the storm system finally pushing towards the northeast and the Great Lakes region by the 26th afternoon.
Featured Image Credit: Photos.com