Big Story Weather – July 4, 2013
Daily weather forecast and wrap-up provided by redOrbit meteorologist Joshua Kelly.
Big Story Weather from July 3: The severe weather was found along the Southwest over parts of New Mexico. There were also scattered severe weather reports across the Northern Rockies and parts of the Southeast US. The big story was the arrival of very heavy rains over the Gulf Coast and Southeast ahead of two tropical waves. The heat continued to bake the Southwest with temps rising over 110F.
Big Story Weather Discussion for July 4: Low pressure moving across the Northern Plains will bring isolated thunderstorms to the region. The tropical area of low pressure is pushing towards the Northern Gulf and will bring with it isolated tornadoes, heavy rains and damaging winds. The area highlighted in red is where we are expecting this to take place over the next few days. High pressure out West will keep the region hot and dry again today.
Severe Weather: There will be pockets of strong to severe storms over the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains, but should remain isolated. The bigger threat will be over the Northern Gulf Coast. This region could see waterspouts, brief tornadoes, storm surge, flooding rains and damaging winds throughout today.
Tropical Weather: A large tropical wave will be impacting the weather over a good portion of the Northern Gulf Coast region with heavy rains, strong winds, flooding, waterspouts and brief tornadoes.
Here is the weather for a few select cities:
Baltimore MD: Partly cloudy with a few afternoon thunderstorms. High temps will be around 81F and overnight lows will be near 69F. Total rainfall will be around 0.40 inches.
Gulfport MS: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps near 88F and overnight lows will be near 79F. Total rainfall will be around 0.50 inches.
Fargo ND: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps will be around 70F and overnight lows will fall to near 66F. Total rainfall will be near 0.15 inches.
Billings MT: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps will be around 67F and overnight lows will fall to near 60F. Total rainfall will be near 0.05 inches.
Portland OR: Partly cloudy with a high near 73F. Overnight lows will be near 64F.
July 4, 2013 Storm Tracker Update:
Eastern Pacific Ocean: Tropical Storm Dalila has winds around 50mph and pressure around 997mb. The storm continues to move over colder waters and will continue to decrease and weaken. A second tropical wave moving off the coast of Central America will bring showers to the region and needs to be watched for tropical development. Low pressure moving south of Hawaii will bring strong winds to the region. Low pressure moving towards Alaska will bring showers to the region.
Atlantic Ocean: A broad area of tropical flow over the Gulf will continue to bring heavy rains to the Northern Gulf and Southeast US. Low pressure near Greenland will bring showers to the region. A broad area of low pressure has flared up over the Western coast of Africa. Low pressure moving across Northwest Europe will bring showers to the region.
Western Pacific: Low pressure moving through Central Russia will bring showers to the region. Low pressure north of Japan will bring showers and thunderstorms along the frontal boundary across most of Japan and back into Eastern China.
Indian Ocean: The monsoonal trough continues to push strong over most of Southeast Asia.
Southern Hemisphere: Multiple areas of low pressure moving across the region will have impacts on parts of South America and also over Southeast Australia and portions of New Zealand.
Five-Day Storm Index Outlook for July 4-8:
Baltimore MD: The period will start impact free for today. Look for moderate impacts from July 5-7 as thunderstorms and return flow move into the region bringing flooding rains to the area.
Gulfport MS: The region will see slight to moderate impacts for the next several days as two tropical waves move through the region.
Fargo ND: The region will have slight to moderate impacts for the next two days. This will give way to sunny skies and impact free weather for the remainder of the period.
Billings MT: The region will see slight to moderate impacts over the next several days associated with afternoon thunderstorm activity. The region will become impact free by the end of the period.
Portland OR: The region will see warm weather and be impact free as no precipitation is forecasted over the next five days.
Climate Watch for June 29- July 3:
Baltimore MD: The region has seen temps around 1-4 degrees below normal for the past five days.
Gulfport MS: The area started with temps around 1-3 degrees above normal before cooling to around 1-4 degrees below normal for the remainder of the period.
Fargo ND: The past five days temps have been running around 2-8 degrees above normal for the region.
Billings MT: The last five days the area has seen temps around 6-15 degrees above normal.
Portland OR: The region has seen very hot temps with temps ranging from around 8-20 degrees above normal.
Major Weather Impacts Discussion for July 4, 2013:
Day 1-3: Low pressure over the Northern Plains will bring isolated thunderstorms to the region during the afternoon hours. The tropical wave that is pushing towards the Northern Gulf will bring heavy rain, damaging winds, along with waterspouts and also isolated tornadoes to the region today. High pressure over the Southwest will bring another hot and dry day to the region. The Pacific Northwest will begin to cool down today with temps only in the 80′s. The tropical low pressure will push northward during day two bringing with it copious amounts of rainfall from the Northern Gulf to the Southeast with high flooding likely in this region. High pressure will keep the West hot and dry again. The period will finish with large amounts of rainfall moving up the East Coast and back into the Gulf Coast associated with the tropical low pressures that will be both moving onshore and also the new low that will be over the Southwest Gulf. Low pressure will also be moving through the Northern Plains bringing with it a chance for some thunderstorms.
Day 4-7: The period will start with low pressure moving into the Great Lakes bringing thunderstorms to the region. These will extend southward along the cold front. The tropical feature over the Northern Gulf will push large amounts of rainfall into the Northern Gulf Coast. The West will remain dry and hot. Day five another low pressure will move into the Northern Plains bringing more thunderstorms to the region. The return flow will bring showers and thunderstorms from the Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic region. Day six will have the low pressure moving into the Great Lakes setting the stage for more strong thunderstorms over the area. Return flow will bring showers and thunderstorms from the Gulf into the Southeast. The West will remain dry. The period will finish with high pressure over the West bringing yet another warm and dry day to the region. The return flow over the Gulf coast will bring more afternoon thunderstorms to the region. The low pressure moving through the Great Lakes will also bring thunderstorms to the region.
Day 8-12: The period will start with low pressure moving into the Northeast bringing heavy rains and thunderstorms to the region. Return flow over the Gulf will bring showers and thunderstorms to the Gulf Coast and also northward into parts of the Ohio River valley. Another frontal boundary will begin to push into the Northern Plains. High pressure will keep the West hot and dry. Day ten high pressure over the Northeast will keep the region dry, while return flow off the Gulf will continue to bring afternoon thunderstorms to the Gulf Coast. The monsoonal rains will try to push into the Southwest during this time as well.
Long Range Outlook: The period will begin with low pressure along the East Coast bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region. A weak high pressure will be over the Great Lakes. Another storm system will be moving into the Northern Plains. The monsoonal rains will move closer to Southern Arizona and New Mexico during this time as well. The middle of the period will have low pressure of the Mid-Atlantic with a cold front back towards the Gulf Coast. This region will see showers and thunderstorms. A second low pressure area will be moving into the Northern Plains with another round of thunderstorms and the West will see the monsoonal rains push into Arizona and New Mexico. The period will finish with another low pressure area going up the East Coast bringing more rain showers and thunderstorms to the region.
Today’s Spotlight Forecast is for Billings MT:
Thursday: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps will be near 89F and overnight lows will fall to near 70F. Total rainfall will be around 0.05 inches. Winds from the southeast 7-12mph.
Friday: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps will be around 91F and overnight lows will be near 60F. Winds from the northwest 7-12mph and total rainfall near 0.30 inches.
Saturday: Partly cloudy with afternoon thunderstorms. High temps will be around 86F. Winds will be from the southeast 2-7mph as overnight lows fall to around 62F. Total rainfall will be near 0.05 inches.
Sunday: Partly cloudy and hot as high temps rise to near 93F. Overnight lows will be near 66F. Winds will be from the northeast 2-7mph.
Monday: Partly cloudy with high temps near 93F. Winds from the southwest 2-7mph as overnight lows fall to around 65F.
Ask The Weatherman for July 4, 2013:
Question: What are the stages of a tropical system?
Answer: There are multiple stages to a tropical feature. They mostly start as a tropical wave. From there they can gain strength and become a tropical depression. They then further gain strength becoming a tropical storm. Finally, if they continue to grow, they would become a Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone depending on where they form around the globe.
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Green Energy Weather Report for July 4, 2013:
Wave Energy: There will be slight to moderate amounts of energy along the Northeast coast. The Mid-Atlantic and Southeast will have moderate to extreme amounts of energy. The Northern Gulf Coast will also have moderate to extreme amounts of energy associated with the tropical wave. The Southwest will have moderate amounts of energy today. The Northwest will have slight amounts of energy.
Solar Energy: The best place for solar energy today will be over the Northwest and the Southwest. Both places will have good amounts of solar energy. Good amounts of solar energy will be found over the western part of the Southern Plains from Texas to Kansas.
Wind Energy: The best place for wind energy today will be through the Northern Gulf ahead of the tropical waves.
Hydro-Energy: There will be multiple areas of hydro energy today from isolated in the Northern Plains to scattered over the Gulf Coast and Southeast. There will also be isolated amounts of energy across the Ohio River Valley into parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
July 4 Weather and Your Wallet (Mobile AL):
A tropical wave will move into the region today bringing plenty of rainfall to the area and putting a damper on the 4th of July festivities.
Dining: Look for impacts to outdoor picnics today. Most of the day you will see these bands of showers and thunderstorms move through.
Transportation: There will be delays at the airports and also on the roadways as these heavier lines of storms move into the region on and off today.
Shopping: Expect to have an umbrella handy if you plan on going out and shopping those sales this afternoon.
Electricity: There will be the need for 20CDD’s today meaning the need for air conditioning will exist all day long for the area.
Yard Work: This morning would be the best time to get out and get any yard work done. There will be about 35GDD’s for the day.
Construction: If you have to work on outdoor projects today, expect to see some delays in between each round of showers and thunderstorms.
Outdoor Venues: This morning would be the best time to walk the dog. This afternoon and evening for all the 4th of July events expect to see some impacts from showers and thunderstorms as they move through the area. The day won’t be a complete wash, however there will be plenty of showers and thunderstorms moving through at given times.
Image Credit: Tomaj Szymanski / Shutterstock